Opinion: Why GTA IV PSP is the health check Sony's handheld desperately needs

Don't go firing your Glocks into the air just yet, Niko fans – this is in no way confirmation (or, more accurately, revelation) that GTA IV Stories is coming to PSP. Rather, it's a statement about the future of the handheld if it doesn't.

Here's the reasoning. I've been monitoring the situation for the past 18-24 months and the undeniable trend I see is that publishers haven't really got out of the mentality that success for their handheld titles means publishing them on DS, not PSP.

If you go back to the beginning of the two handhelds, you'll note a healthy release schedule for both, with the majority of titles announced as cross-platform releases. But the moment the DS Lite raced ahead in sales, publishers were quick to dismiss Sony's machine. And I do mean quick – within less than a year of launch, there was a noticeable drop in third-party support for PSP, with the format disappearing completely off many release schedules. (It didn't help that publishing heavyweights such as EA publicised their anti-PSP stance, while others, like Koei, made it clear they'd be focusing on DS only going forward.)

Okay, there was something of a positive blip in 2007, particularly towards the latter half of the year, but if look closer you'll note that a worryingly high proportion of those releases were first-party titles as Sony finally got in gear with regards to supporting its handheld (once it stopped concentrating solely on the troublesome PlayStation 3).

Generally speaking, though, the situation regarding a lack of PSP support amongst the other publishers has largely continued.

When I contacted a few last year for comment, I mostly got expected replies about how the situation was just a reflection of their catalogue being targeted at the very different demographics of each handheld and the fact that they happened to be focusing on more DS-like titles at the time.

But that's not entirely true, of course. Sid Meier's Civilization, Ghostbusters (admittedly now a possibility on PSP) and Call of Duty 4 (and its recently announced sequel) aren't exactly DS-only material, are they? They're the first three that come to mind but there are numerous examples of titles that continue to be announced for Nintendo's handheld without a PSP counterpart in sight.

It's understandable. At the time many of those games were greenlit by publishers, the PSP wasn't necessarily setting the hardware charts alight. And this is a risk-averse business, after all. Things improved considerably sales-wise once the Slim & Lite version showed up, which may also explain why certain big releases – things like Spider-Man 3, The Simpsons, The Sims 2 Castaway and The Golden Compass – turned up on the handheld, albeit considerably later than they did on DS (possibly as a result of a delayed decision on the part of the publishers).

Yes, I'm clearly aware PSP is having a great time in Japan and to date it is the biggest selling console this year – even outperforming the mighty Wii. And I genuinely think that's brilliant, just as I'm glad to see the success DS has enjoyed (don't get me started on where that console is headed, though). The niggle is that it's not a performance PSP is enjoying in other territories, at least not to the same degree. And although it's likely to encourage publishers back on to the format, the nature of game development means it'll be a year before we start seeing that effect in practice.

This is where GTA IV PSP comes in. It's the decisions publishers are taking now with regards to releasing titles on the handheld that will effectively determine its lifespan. Sony may talk about a ten-year cycle for PSP while continuing on its (in my view misguided) crusade with regards to the system's multimedia capabilities, and certainly the numbers sold to date are healthy (and it's a believably high-profit business), but the fact is it simply won't last the distance if there aren't any games to play on it.

So a franchise of GTA's calibre to make another appearance on PSP is exactly the seal of approval the system needs. (There are other contenders, obviously.) It would likely create the kind of momentum (now that sales are up) the handheld could have benefited from had Sony not shifted its attention almost entirely over to PS3 at such a crucial time in PSP's existence, effectively leaving the system to fend for itself – both in the eyes of consumers and, critically, game publishers.

If, however, Rockstar decides the platform isn't worth bothering with, then PSP has a worryingly tough time ahead. And whoever is responsible at Sony should be equally concerned. Because while it's unlikely to involve Glocks, I'd expect there will be firing involved.