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Mobile Games 2008 Part 1: How positive are publishers?

Kicking off our series looking ahead to the next 12 months

Mobile Games 2008 Part 1: How positive are publishers?
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Good news, mobile gamers. The companies who make a living from phone gaming are, for the most part, positive about 2008. We know, because we asked them.

The first weeks of the year has been spent canvassing publishers about their hopes, expectations and predictions for 2008, covering all areas including technology, brands versus original games, distribution/retail, and new gameplay innovations.

Over the coming days, we'll be addressing each of those in turn, and presenting the views of the companies we surveyed (including all the big names of the industry).

But we'll start today with the simple question of if and why our interviewees are feeling positive about 2008.

EA Mobile's Tim Harrison is even-handed, as you might expect from an industry veteran (he used to be head games honcho at Vodafone).

"From a market perspective, the outlook is generally positive, but, of course, it's the usual mixture of challenges and opportunities," he says. "Personally, I'm feeling extremely positive about what EA can bring to the market this year - we've got the best roadmap of titles I've ever seen from a publisher. And as an ex-operator, I got to see a few..."
I-play's David Gosen thinks 2008 will be a "coming of age" year for mobile gaming, spurred by a mixture of content, technology, consumers and distribution channels.
"Increasing 3G device penetration will lead to easier and therefore greater content download levels," he says. "Consumer awareness will be driven by the overall market growth, big brands leveraging mobile and increased viral marketing and word of mouth. Content quality will increase and carrier game catalogues will decrease – leading to an improved shopping experience."
This idea of a quality increase in mobile games is reflected by Player One's George Sakkas, who reckons the industry has developed considerably.
"Mobile games are now starting to improve a great deal, in terms of basic standards for what makes a good game these days. In the past titles could be less decent and it would go unnoticed," he says. "Also, developers are working hard to develop relationships with the now established publishers and the people that work in the industry are starting to get clearly defined roles and as a result can work harder to become the best in their field. As a whole the industry is becoming more efficient and organised and as a result competition for all titles is increasing ,which is a good thing for the consumer."
For many publishers, their positivity about 2008 relates directly to their own company's performance, rather than wider industry trends. For example, Digital Chocolate's Trip Hawkins says that the publisher just had its best quarter ever in terms of revenue, growth, profits and cash flow.
"We begin 2008 with great momentum from the DChoc Cafe series and other new award-winning games, and we are within a few months of the global rollout of AvaPeeps, which opens an important new market for us with a recurring revenue model," he says.
However, it's not all positive vibes, with some publishers seeing the half-empty aspects of the industry as well as the half-full bits. For example, Vivendi Games Mobile's Paul Maglione says that while the publisher is feeling positive "across the board" in the US, but it's not quite as rosy on this side of the Atlantic.
"For Europe, it's more of a mixed picture, with some carriers doing great and really growing the business by 20 percent, 30 percent and more last year, whereas others are losing focus and, worse, outsourcing the editorial function to outside suppliers, thus reducing revenue available to share with publishers. Paradoxically, 2007 was the year games became the number one mobile entertainment revenue driver for many if not most big European carriers."
This issue of 'outsourcing' isn't one that the vast majority of mobile gamers will be aware of, but it seems it's something publishers think will affect us negatively. Christopher Kassulke, of HandyGames, is also concerned by the issue.
"Operators are outsourcing their games business to distributors or other third parties. The biggest problem will be that the revenue shares of mobile game publishers are going down (because of the outsourcing). The industry cannot work under such conditions. That's why some of the publishers – even big ones - will struggle."
Meanwhile, Jeremy Wells from RealArcade says mobile games growth will be "relatively flat" in Europe this year, with publishers focusing more energy on emerging countries like India and China. However, he's chirpy about the gameplay possibilities of touchscreen handsets.
"The popularity of Apple's iPhone and in particular touchscreen input will radically determine future form and functionality factors when it comes to phone designs – which is good news for mass market gamers who struggle to play even simple games using the D-pad or numeric keypad," he says.
We'll have more on this subject in the Technologies section of our 2008 preview, so watch this space...

Stuart Dredge
Stuart Dredge
Stuart is a freelance journalist and blogger who's been getting paid to write stuff since 1998. In that time, he's focused on topics ranging from Sega's Dreamcast console to robots. That's what you call versatility. (Or a short attention span.)