Majic Jungle's David Frampton on why day 1 sales halve every week, but launching a sequel bumps the original

We've already witnessed developers candidly admit that, despite scores of notable success stories, game sales on the App Store don't always live up to expectations.

There is, however, a certain level of consistency to be found, even when the downloads aren't soaring.

A blog post by Majic Jungle Software's David Frampton helps detail the download patterns studios can expect to both enjoy and endure after they launch an app on the marketplace.

In almost every case, Frampton draws conclusions from the surges and troughs that his games – Chopper and Chopper 2 – have amassed since they launched on the App Store.

Most notable for those new to the marketplace is that they should expect downloads of their title to halve roughly once a week every week after launch.

"Even though the temptation is overwhelming, don’t bother multiplying launch day sales by 365," Frampton says in an entry on his blog.

"Sales tend to halve every week or so, then after a month or two it starts to level out. There are exceptions to this rule, which I think can mostly be chalked up to a large amount of post-launch hype or a feature or other marketing."

Marketing is, of course, a major force in its own right.

Frampton notes that little can compare to being featured as one of Apple's 'game of the week', though other factors can also see downloads rise, if only for a short period.

He notes that, while the success of one title doesn't necessarily bleed over to another, launching a direct sequel can see downloads of the original game rise accordingly – a trend he observed with Chopper, when it's sequel – Chopper 2 – hit the App Store last July.

"I worry a little that this is partly due to people downloading the wrong app," Frampton states.

"But I also expect that there is a certain number of people who bought Chopper 1 first, wanting to experience that before Chopper 2, as well as those who after having played Chopper 2 then bought the original."

Aside from that, Frampton notes that the post-Christmas boost can last anything up to three months, citing customers utilising gift vouchers as the possible cause behind the length of the tail.

Most of such trends are, to an extent, also visible on the Mac App Store, though Frampton does claim that it's unlikely that many people are "making huge amounts of money on the Mac App Store, but it’s off to a healthy start, and will only get better from here".

[source: Majic Jungle Software]